明明已經很努力了，為何還是會作出錯誤的決定 @ 譯文大賞

What is Decision Making? 什麼是決策(decision making)?

Let's define decision making. Decision making is just what it sounds like: the action or process of making decisions. Sometimes we make logical decisions, but there are many times when we make emotional, irrational, and confusing choices. This page covers why we make poor decisions and discusses useful frameworks to expand your decision-making toolbox.

決策顧名思義，就是決定策略的過程。儘管我們有腦袋，按理可以理智地作出決定，但有時候卻常常作出事後讓自己困擾或是懊悔不已的選擇。為此我在這裡要跟大家解釋為何會有這樣的現象，並且告訴大家如何解決這樣的窘境。

Why We Make Poor Decisions 為何我們還是會有判斷錯誤的時候

I like to think of myself as a rational person, but I’m not one. The good news is it’s not just me — or you. We are all irrational. For a long time, researchers and economists believed that humans made logical, well-considered decisions. In recent decades, however, researchers have uncovered a wide range of mental errors that derail our thinking. The articles below outline where we often go wrong and what to do about it.

真的好想認為自己是個理性的人，可惜我知道自己並不是。好消息是，這樣的人並不只有自己或是您-我們人其實都是非理性的。曾經好長的一段時間，研究人員和經濟學家深信人類有作出理性而且是經過深思熟慮的決策。但是到了近幾年，研究人員推翻了這樣的想法，他們發覺到有許多錯誤判斷影響自己的思緒。以下我會針對這樣的現象作出解釋，並提供解決方法。

5 Common Mental Errors That Sway You From Making Good Decisions:

無法讓自己作出正確決策的五種心理偏誤(mental error)

Let's talk about the mental errors that show up most frequently in our lives and break them down in easy-to-understand language. This article outlines how survivorship bias, loss aversion, the availability heuristic, anchoring, and confirmation bias sway you from making good decisions.

在這篇文章裡，我會針對最常出現的心理偏誤進行分析，並用淺顯易懂的方式分別對於倖存者偏誤(survivorship bias)、損失規避(loss aversion)、現成偏差(the availability heuristic)、下錨偏差(anchoring)以及應證偏差(confirmation bias)如何會影響我們作出正確決定作解釋。

延伸閱讀: 不可不知的邏輯陷阱：倖存者偏誤的教訓

How to Spot a Common Mental Error That Leads to Misguided Thinking

如何破除迷信：為何會不自覺把兩個本質上不相干的事情連接在一起呢？

Hundreds of psychology studies have proven that we tend to overestimate the importance of events we can easily recall and underestimate the importance of events we have trouble recalling. Psychologists refer to this little brain mistake as an “illusory correlation.” In this article, we talk about a simple strategy you can use to spot your hidden assumptions and prevent yourself from making an illusory correlation.

目前已經有上百篇的心理學研究報告證實，我們有高估那些容易回想的事情，並低估難以想起的事情的傾向。心理學家將這樣的狀況稱為"幻覺相關現象(illusory correlation)"。我會在這篇文章裡告訴大家一個簡單的解決方式。

Two Harvard Professors Reveal One Reason Our Brains Love to Procrastinate

兩名哈佛教授解釋了我們喜歡拖延的原因

We have a tendency to care too much about our present selves and not enough about our future selves. If you want to beat procrastination and make better long-term choices, then you have to find a way to make your present self act in the best interest of your future self. This article breaks down three simple ways to do just that.

我們都有過於在意自己過去和現在狀況的傾向，卻不太會未雨綢繆，就好比人通常有拖延的習性。如果您想打敗這樣的習氣並作出對未來好的決定，那麼就需要找到一種方法，是可以在當下作出對於未來有幫助的事情。而在這篇文章裡，我提供了三種方法供大家參考。

How to Use Mental Models for Smart Decision Making 如何利用心智模式(mental model)來作出精明的決策

The smartest way to improve your decision making skills is to learn mental models. A mental model is a framework or theory that helps to explain why the world works the way it does. Each mental model is a concept that helps us make sense of the world and offers a way of looking at the problems of life.

改善決策力的最好方式就是學習心智模式(mental models)。所謂心智模式指的是人們對於外在環境做解釋的一種框架，而每一種心智模式都是幫助我們每個人理解外在環境並提供看待事物的原則。

You can learn more about mental models, read how Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman uses mental models, or browse a few of the most important mental models below.

如果想更了解心智模式，那麼可以參考諾貝爾物理獎得主李察費曼(Richard Feynman)使用心智模式的方法，或是閱讀以下的文章或是書籍。

Top Mental Models to Improve Your Decision Making

改善決策力的最佳心智模式